GBPEUR hits 1.17 – will the pound continue to rise?

GBPEUR exchange rates rose to 4-month highs during yesterday’s session, hitting 1.17 on the interbank market. Sterling is trading 0.6% off the 52-week high against the euro, making now an opportune time for sterling sellers.

Sterling has remained resilient against the dollar, holding above the key threshold of 1.27. Cable (GBPUSD) rates are 0.7% off the 5-month high.

Services & Manufacturing data

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys senior executives within the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is collated in month; therefore, the reading gives a very accurate view of how certain sectors are fairing in the current economic climate.

The index varies between 0-100. A reading above 50 signals an expansion and a reading below 50 signals a contraction.

Later today we will see the release of PMI date from the Eurozone, UK, and US. There is an expectation that both the sectors are contracting in the Eurozone. A surprise expansion could provide support to the value of the single currency.

PMI service data from the UK will be watched carefully. The service sector accounts for 70% of UK economic output. Forecasts are suggesting an expansion at 53.2. A reading below 53.2 could spell bad news for the pound and halt its current trajectory.

Friday’s poor retail sales data supported the view of a pending UK recession. A struggling service sector could add fuel to recessionary speculation and worry the Bank of England ahead of their interest rate decision next week.

US PMI data is expected to show a slight rise in service activity to 51, any deviance here could cause volatility.

ECB Meeting

Following a busy day of economic data, markets will quickly re-focus their attention to tomorrow’s European Central Bank meeting. Currently there is no expectation of a rate cut, however, the press conference and statement following the meeting could set out the plan for future changes and therefore cause significant volatility on euro exchanges.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement that requires expert attention, please reach out to me directly via richard.nugent@lumonpay.com